Economic Note: A New World
By David Vegara, Chairman of the Advisory Board of RocaJunyent
David Vegara, Chairman of the Advisory Board of RocaJunyent, invites us to read his Economic Note. In it, he analyses how Trump's recent re-election could brand a new era, with a more experienced and decisive administration, but facing a deeply divided country. This Republican triumph, driven by the discontent of sectors marginalised by technological change and previous economic policies, reflects a populist turn in the Republican Party, which could transform both domestic policy and international relations. Trump's protectionist and transactional vision poses significant challenges: his tariff approach could raise the costs of imported goods in the US and affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Also, his expansionary fiscal policy and rising public debt add uncertainty about long-term interest rates, which could destabilise markets.
In Europe, a more isolationist US approach to defence and security would force the European Union to reconsider its common policy in these areas, although without a clear consensus among member states.
Finally, although the Spanish economy shows dynamism, it will not be exempt from the effects of this complex global context, with lower growth forecasts for 2025.