Economic Note: Dystopian Reality
David Vegara, Chairman of the Advisory Board of RocaJunyent, invites us to read his Economic Note. In it, he describes a dystopian reality marked by the re-election of Trump, who returns with more experience and clarity in his objectives, impacting international trade, fiscal policy, and European defence. The Trump administration, with a protectionist approach, could influence international trade and the fiscal policy of the United States, with possible effects on the trade deficit and inflation.
In Europe, Germany faces significant challenges, with economic stagnation since 2019 and manufacturing struggling to compete with China, especially in the electric vehicle sector. Recent elections reflect growing social unrest, with Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining ground with an anti-immigration and anti-European discourse. Germany's economic transition will be long and complex, and its leadership is crucial for the European Union in this context.
On the other hand, the Spanish economy shows remarkable dynamism, with growth exceeding 3% in 2024, driven by immigration, the tourism sector, and an expansive fiscal policy. The high proportion of renewable energies has allowed for reduced dependence on imported sources, moderating the volatility of domestic prices. However, structural challenges persist, such as the low technological component of exports and a dysfunctional labour market. Additionally, the housing market presents significant imbalances that could generate social tensions.